WHAT THE BAY OF FUNDY SEA RISE IMPACT MAPS MEAN

Some folks seem to think that the maps we have been presenting that show projected sea rise at various locations around the Bay of Fundy represent some imminent change. They don't. They are designed to show what can be expected if global warming reaches certain levels of temperature rise. 

With regards to timing, the authors say: "When do we pass the point of no return, and lock in the future sea levels shown? Maps that compare temperature increases show sea level projections that lock in IF AND WHEN enough carbon emissions add up to lock in each temperature increase. The answers depend on our carbon choices, and could easily fall within this century for any of the temperature options."

So it depends on us. If we can meet the challenges posed by global warming, sea levels may not be as severe as those shown. If we don't meet the challenge, the most certainly will!

The full explanatory text follows:

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Reading Sea level timing is critical for a clear understanding of when the sea level rise shown on these maps could occur in the future. These maps are based on peer-reviewed scientific research led by Benjamin Strauss and Scott Kulp of Climate Central in collaboration with Anders Levermann of the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research, and published in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. Application of this research to areas outside the U.S. is detailed in the Mapping Choices report.

These notes are intended to help explain the research, the maps, and how to use them.

Sea level lock-in

Carbon pollution casts a long shadow. It is expected to persist in the atmosphere long enough to prolong temperature increases for hundreds and thousands of years, long after we stop burning fossil fuels or clearing forest. And the seas will continue to rise.

That’s what these maps are about. They do not show what sea levels will be in this century (see this map for near-term analysis). What they do show are scientific projections, taken from this paper, of the different post-2100 sea levels that could lock in this century, depending upon the carbon pathway we select. The areas colored blue are the areas below

SEA RISE IMPACTS AROUND THE BAY OF FUNDY - 2.5 - Grand Manan Island

The world’s leading climate scientists have warned there may be only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5 C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people.. If so, the estimate on the right side would apply. Subscribe by email to get new posts on this subject. 

It is generally thought that tidal range may stay the same (20 - 50 feet in the Bay of Fundy), but that the cycle range will rise causing flooding to remain on land for a longer period and increasing risk of damage to coastal facilities.

SEA RISE IMPACTS AROUND THE BAY OF FUNDY - 5 - Tantramar - Will Nova Scotia become an island?

The world’s leading climate scientists have warned there may be only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5 C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people.. If so, the estimate on the right side would apply. Subscribe by email to get new posts on this subject. 

It is generally thought that tidal range may stay the same (20 - 50 feet in the Bay of Fundy), but that the cycle range will rise causing flooding to remain on land for a longer period and increasing risk of damage to coastal facilities.

SEA RISE IMPACTS AROUND THE BAY OF FUNDY - 3 - SAINT JOHN AREA

The world’s leading climate scientists have warned there is only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5 C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people.. If so, the estimate on the right side would apply. Subscribe by email to get new posts on this subject.


for the nay sayers, this is a "what if" presentation based on available scientific research. Nothing simple for sure. You can get all the supporting information here: https://choices.climatecentral.org/#when

SEA RISE IMPACTS AROUND THE BAY OF FUNDY - 2 - St. Andrews Area

We will add new areas as we can. If you are anxious to find out what will happen in your area just click on the title of this map to do a new search

https://choices.climatecentral.org/#14/45.0738/-67.0531?compare=temperatures&carbon-end-yr=2100&scenario-a=warming-4&scenario-b=warming-2

SEA RISE IMPACTS AROUND THE BAY OF FUNDY - 8 - Digby Area

The world’s leading climate scientists have warned there may be only a dozen years for global warming to be kept to a maximum of 1.5 C, beyond which even half a degree will significantly worsen the risks of drought, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people.. If so, the estimate on the right side would apply. Subscribe by email to get new posts on this subject. 

It is generally thought that tidal range may stay the same (20 - 50 feet in the Bay of Fundy), but that the cycle range will rise causing flooding to remain on land for a longer period and increasing risk of damage to coastal facilities.

Could New Fundy Construction Projects Be Flooded ... Twice a Day?

With the UN report predicting sea level rises in the Bay of Fundy perhaps as high as 3 feet, one wonders what the impacts will be on new construction like the Biological Station at St. Andrews and the new Civic Centre at St. Stephen?

This photo shows high tide at the site of the new Civic Centre in St. Stephen. Hmmm?

News Item

By SETH BORENSTEIN, AP Science Writer Seth Borenstein, Ap Science Writer - Sun Mar 15, 2:04 pm ET Scientists find bigger than expected polar ice melt WASHINGTON - The northeastern U.S. coast is likely to see the world's biggest sea level rise from man-made global warming, a new study predicts. However much the oceans rise by the end of the century, add an extra 8 inches or so for New York, Boston and other spots along the coast from the mid-Atlantic to New England. That's because of predicted changes in ocean currents, according to a study based on computer models published online Sunday in the journal Nature Geoscience. An extra 8 inches - on top of a possible 2 or 3 feet of sea rise globally by 2100 - is a big deal, especially when nor'easters and hurricanes hit, experts said. "It's not just waterfront homes and wetlands that are at stake here," said Donald Boesch, president of the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, who wasn't part of the study. "Those kind of rises in sea level when placed on top of the storm surges we see today, put in jeopardy lots of infrastructure, including the New York subway system." For years, scientists have talked about rising sea levels due to global warming - both from warm water expanding and the melt of ice sheets in Greenland and West Antarctica. Predictions for the average worldwide sea rise keep changing along with the rate of ice melt. Recently, more scientists are saying the situation has worsened so that a 3-foot rise in sea level by 2100 is becoming a common theme. More at: http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090315/ap_on_re_us/sci_northeast_sea_rise

Thanks to Vivian N.

UN: Rising sea levels threaten Bay of Fundy coast

By The Canadian Press
Mon. Mar 16 - 12:52 PM

TRURO — Canada's environment minister will be looking into potential problems for major flooding along the Bay of Fundy coastline.

Nova Scotia MP Bill Casey says he has raised concerns with Jim Prentice given that the United Nations Panel on Global Warming identified the Bay of Fundy as one of the most vulnerable in North America.

The report said the area could be severely damaged due to rising sea levels resulting from global warming.

Casey says Prentice is trying to identify resources to assess the vulnerability of the Bay of Fundy shoreline.

He told the minister about the damage caused by severe storms in the Advocate area last December and in Truro and Bible Hill during the past few years.

More info: http://www.mar.dfo-mpo.gc.ca/science/review/1996/Shaw/Shaw_e.html and: http://www.bofep.org/climate.htm

Photo Credit: Joyce Morrell